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Getafe CF 3–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win49%2.00
Draw30%3.23
Cadiz win21%4.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Jorge Molina · Getafe CF
24'⚽Khalifa Sankare · Cadiz
32'⚽Emiliano Buendía · Getafe CF
64'🟨Sergio Mora · Getafe CF
68'🟨Cata Díaz · Getafe CF
69'⚽Ager Aketxe · Cadiz
80'🟨Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
81'🟨Khalifa Sankare · Cadiz
90'🟨Jorge Molina · Getafe CF
90'🟨Alberto · Cadiz
90'🟨Alfredo Ortuño · Cadiz
90'⚽ (pen)Jorge Molina · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.35
box share (last 5)0.560.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days163.00316.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.703.26
elo1478.31
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
1498.69
elo momentum (last 5)-11.2510.77
eye test v1-0.85-0.55
eye trend v1-0.23-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.9058.70
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.63
keeper form v10.750.79
league points37.0040.00
league rank4.003.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4071.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6048.20
rest days6.087.08
scorer concentration0.300.41
season ppg1.541.67
skill v1-1.05-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.40
state index-0.300.11
sterile dominance v1-0.61-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60