⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Zaragoza 1–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win47%2.08
Draw30%3.30
Lugo win23%4.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Lugo
52'🟨Xabier Irureta · Zaragoza
59'⚽Cani · Zaragoza
68'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
87'🟨Fran Rodríguez · Zaragoza
90'⚽Fede Vico · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
box share (last 5)0.610.74
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days120.00212.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.073.25
elo1417.86
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1480.02
elo momentum (last 5)-6.36-7.98
eye test v1-0.64-0.11
eye trend v1-0.26-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)63.7067.00
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.82
keeper form v10.680.70
league points27.0031.00
league rank16.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6075.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6055.80
rest days8.008.08
scorer concentration0.350.38
season ppg1.231.41
skill v1-0.140.31
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
state index-0.42-0.25
sterile dominance v10.360.65
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.200.16
threat rate (last 5)0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80