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Numancia 2–0 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win39%2.50
Draw33%2.99
Getafe CF win28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Juan Cala · Getafe CF
5'🟨David Fuster · Getafe CF
16'⚽Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia
25'🟥Nicolás Gorosito · Getafe CF
28'🟨Pablo Valcarce · Numancia
62'⚽Pablo Valcarce · Numancia
67'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
box share (last 5)0.510.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days608.00150.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.68
elo1435.44
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
1491.29
elo momentum (last 5)19.5615.18
eye test v10.37-0.13
eye trend v1-0.05-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)70.5061.60
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.97
keeper form v10.560.77
league points27.0036.00
league rank14.003.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0067.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2046.60
rest days7.006.75
scorer concentration0.360.30
season ppg1.231.64
skill v1-0.55-1.18
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
state index0.080.11
sterile dominance v1-0.80-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.26
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60