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Cadiz 1–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win47%2.07
Draw30%3.30
Almeria win23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
33'🟨Borja · Almeria
43'🟨Khalifa Sankare · Cadiz
44'🟨Fidel · Almeria
48'🟨Fran Vélez · Almeria
54'🟨Khalifa Sankare · Cadiz
54'🟥Khalifa Sankare · Cadiz
63'🟨Rafidine Abdullah · Cadiz
83'⚽Aitor García · Cadiz
88'🟨Nano · Almeria
90'🟨Chuli · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
box share (last 5)0.650.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days296.00174.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.863.06
elo1486.68
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
1394.48
elo momentum (last 5)42.48-23.14
eye test v10.03-0.45
eye trend v10.050.01
first sub minute (last 10)57.6057.30
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.661.10
keeper form v10.850.71
league points33.0021.00
league rank4.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4074.80
possession avg (last 5)42.2054.20
rest days9.007.17
scorer concentration0.410.33
season ppg1.571.00
skill v1-0.770.12
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index0.64-0.95
sterile dominance v1-1.120.64
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.270.17
threat rate (last 5)0.310.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20