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Getafe CF 1–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win64%1.53
Draw23%4.24
Mirandes win13%7.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Carlos Peña · Getafe CF
15'⚽Dani Pacheco · Getafe CF
33'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
39'🟨Pedro Martin · Mirandes
53'⚽Alex Ortiz · Mirandes
75'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Getafe CF
83'🟨Roberto Gutierrez · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.20
box share (last 5)0.700.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days143.00—
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.671.27
elo1495.44
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
1401.94
elo momentum (last 5)34.26-32.52
eye test v1-0.41-1.05
eye trend v1-0.180.05
first sub minute (last 10)62.1051.90
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.70
keeper form v10.760.68
league points35.0022.00
league rank3.0020.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.2071.00
possession avg (last 5)43.6041.60
rest days7.258.00
scorer concentration0.320.29
season ppg1.671.05
skill v1-1.53-1.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.20
state index0.54-1.15
sterile dominance v1-0.94-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.00