⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Reus 1–1 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reus win46%2.11
Draw31%3.12
Mallorca win23%4.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Dejan Lekic · Mallorca
39'🟨Saúl García · Mallorca
43'🟨Hector Yuste · Mallorca
61'🟨Dejan Lekic · Mallorca
65'🟥Jorge Díaz · Reus
67'🟨Saúl García · Mallorca
67'🟥Saúl García · Mallorca
76'⚽Mayor · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReusMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.540.76
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days966.00387.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Reus
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.223.14
elo1505.351435.71
elo momentum (last 5)5.06-22.46
eye test v1-0.30-0.82
eye trend v1-0.46-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)62.4051.10
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.760.65
league points33.0024.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4072.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8051.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.44
season ppg1.501.09
skill v1-0.26-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.80
squad age28.6724.21
state index0.06-0.66
sterile dominance v10.010.06
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.190.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80