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Girona 2–0 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win61%1.61
Draw25%3.92
Cordoba win15%6.72

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Fran Sandaza · Girona
22'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
37'🟨Borja Dominguez · Cordoba
45'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
53'⚽Portu · Girona
56'🟨Esteve Monterde · Cordoba
65'🟨Pere Pons · Girona
84'🟨Jonas Ramalho · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.44
box share (last 5)0.560.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1124.0075.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.75
elo1555.37
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1376.88
elo momentum (last 5)26.692.19
eye test v10.45-0.13
eye trend v1-0.010.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.9060.20
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.67
keeper form v10.740.68
league points36.0026.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)49.2052.00
rest days7.088.00
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.801.30
skill v1-0.61-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
state index0.76-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.600.31
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60