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Mirandes 0–3 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes win35%2.81
Numancia win34%2.88
Draw31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Maikel Mesa · Mirandes
37'🟨Fernando Usero · Mirandes
37'⚽ (pen)Julio Alvarez · Numancia
58'🟨Adrian Ripa · Numancia
74'🟨Pedro Martin · Mirandes
79'⚽ (og)Alex Ortiz · Numancia
81'⚽Alberto Escassi · Numancia
90'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.34
box share (last 5)0.470.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—593.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.692.05
elo1422.53
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
1420.48
elo momentum (last 5)-18.305.87
eye test v1-0.690.19
eye trend v10.180.30
first sub minute (last 10)53.0065.00
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.95
keeper form v10.710.55
league points22.0024.00
league rank18.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0066.00
possession avg (last 5)40.8045.00
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.101.20
skill v1-1.33-1.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.00
state index-0.60-0.39
sterile dominance v1-1.18-1.49
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.34
threat rate (last 5)0.280.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40