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Oviedo 2–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win47%2.06
Draw29%3.33
Elche CF win23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨José Fernández · Oviedo
49'⚽Toché · Oviedo
60'⚽Néstor Susaeta · Oviedo
76'⚽Nino · Elche CF
78'🟨Jon Erice · Oviedo
84'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
85'🟨Néstor Susaeta · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.37
box share (last 5)0.550.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days227.00563.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.84
elo1463.45
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
1465.59
elo momentum (last 5)-52.16-1.21
eye test v1-0.29-0.20
eye trend v10.230.26
first sub minute (last 10)56.1054.60
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
keeper form v10.550.70
league points26.0026.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0074.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2057.00
rest days5.926.00
scorer concentration0.320.26
season ppg1.301.30
skill v1-0.380.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
state index-0.75-0.23
sterile dominance v1-0.090.58
threat rate (last 10)0.190.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80