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Numancia 0–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win44%2.21
Draw29%3.38
Huesca win27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Mikel Saizar · Numancia
30'🟨Julio Alvarez · Numancia
43'🟨Sergio Herrera · Huesca
62'🟨Cesar Soriano · Huesca
67'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
73'🟨Urko Vera · Huesca
78'🟨Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia
90'🟨Íñigo López · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.46
box share (last 5)0.570.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days585.00402.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.90
elo1419.75
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
1505.08
elo momentum (last 5)14.454.29
eye test v10.110.43
eye trend v10.33-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)64.1051.00
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.56
keeper form v10.520.69
league points23.0027.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank7.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8075.80
possession avg (last 5)46.4053.60
rest days19.0020.00
scorer concentration0.380.19
season ppg1.211.42
skill v1-1.070.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.60
state index0.02-0.00
sterile dominance v1-1.030.31
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80