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Almeria 0–1 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win38%2.60
Getafe CF win32%3.09
Draw31%3.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
41'🟨Pape Maly Diamanka · Almeria
41'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF
68'🟨Ximo Navarro · Almeria
87'⚽Jorge Molina · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.46
box share (last 5)0.650.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days158.00127.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.272.23
elo1410.15
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
1489.56
elo momentum (last 5)5.0551.39
eye test v10.06-0.12
eye trend v10.130.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.5059.80
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.97
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.750.76
league points21.0031.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8064.20
possession avg (last 5)56.6040.40
rest days18.9220.00
scorer concentration0.330.28
season ppg1.111.63
skill v10.82-1.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
state index-0.060.64
sterile dominance v10.77-1.35
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60