Valladolid 1–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Valladolid win	50%	1.97
Draw	31%	3.14
Reus win	19%	5.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'	🟨	Jesus Olmo · Reus
80'	⚽	Raúl de Tomás · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Valladolid	Reus
accuracy ratio (last 10)	0.39	0.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)	0.52	0.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)	0.50	0.46
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.00	—
box share (last 5)	0.62	0.62
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	189.00	950.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	—
congestion 21d	1.00	1.00
corners volatility (last 10)	2.91	2.96
elo	1455.89	1487.75
elo momentum (last 5)	14.62	-10.84
eye test v1	0.08	0.19
eye trend v1	-0.07	0.21
first sub minute (last 10)	59.60	62.00
form points (last 5)	7.00	7.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	1.00	0.00
goals against avg (last 5)	1.00	1.00
goals for avg (last 5)	2.00	1.00
goals volatility (last 10)	1.58	0.82
keeper form v1	0.72	0.76
league points	25.00	27.00
league rank	14.00	7.00
matches since blank	3.00	0.00
matches since clean sheet	1.00	1.00
matches since win	1.00	1.00
pass acc avg (last 5)	76.00	74.60
possession avg (last 5)	50.80	50.20
rest days	20.00	20.83
scorer concentration	0.30	0.40
season ppg	1.32	1.42
skill v1	0.00	-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)	3.00	4.20
sot for avg (last 10)	4.80	4.00
sot for avg (last 3)	4.67	5.00
sot for avg (last 5)	4.60	5.00
state index	0.25	-0.14
sterile dominance v1	0.36	0.05
threat rate (last 10)	0.25	0.20
threat rate (last 3)	0.17	0.23
threat rate (last 5)	0.19	0.21
venue ppg (last 5)	2.20	1.40

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

José Zorrilla