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Numancia 3–1 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win40%2.46
Draw32%3.09
Mallorca win29%3.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Julio Pleguezuelo · Mallorca
16'⚽Pablo Valcarce · Numancia
19'⚽Juan Rodríguez · Mallorca
21'🟨Lago Júnior · Mallorca
40'🟨Manu Del Moral · Numancia
45'🟨Jesus Cabrero · Mallorca
45'🟨Brandon · Mallorca
45'🟨Brandon · Mallorca
45'🟥Brandon · Mallorca
45'⚽Manu Del Moral · Numancia
51'🟨Adrian Ripa · Numancia
57'⚽Manu Del Moral · Numancia
59'🟨Dejan Lekic · Mallorca
79'🟨Emmanuel Culio · Mallorca
89'🟨Pol Roige · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.21
box share (last 5)0.510.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days566.00352.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.902.22
elo1406.32
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
1429.79
elo momentum (last 5)3.74-25.39
eye test v1-0.26-0.23
eye trend v10.28-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)62.0048.40
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.97
keeper form v10.610.68
league points20.0019.00
league rank18.0020.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0075.80
possession avg (last 5)43.8048.60
rest days7.007.25
scorer concentration0.330.53
season ppg1.111.06
skill v1-1.45-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
state index-0.33-0.80
sterile dominance v1-0.98-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.310.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80