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Valladolid 5–0 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Manuel Arias Lopez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win57%1.72
Draw26%3.77
Mirandes win17%5.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Valladolid
24'🟨Ruymán Hernández · Mirandes
33'⚽Juan Villar · Valladolid
51'⚽ (pen)Jaime Mata · Valladolid
72'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
75'🟨Iker Guarrotxena · Mirandes
85'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.24
box share (last 5)0.560.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days163.00—
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.943.01
elo1451.78
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
1443.91
elo momentum (last 5)14.69-28.94
eye test v1-0.09-0.70
eye trend v10.040.64
first sub minute (last 10)56.4050.40
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.84
keeper form v10.720.88
league points22.0019.00
league rank15.0019.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6068.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0047.60
rest days7.007.99
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.291.12
skill v1-0.08-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.00
state index0.04-0.76
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.72
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.31
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20