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Elche CF 2–2 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win35%2.79
Getafe CF win34%2.91
Draw32%3.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
17'🟨Juan Cala · Getafe CF
19'🟨Edu Albacar · Elche CF
26'🟨Pedro · Elche CF
41'🟨Sergio Pelegrin · Elche CF
45'⚽Jorge Molina · Getafe CF
66'🟨Alberto Garcia · Getafe CF
70'⚽Guillermo · Elche CF
72'⚽Nino · Elche CF
84'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF
90'🟨Nino · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.31
box share (last 5)0.530.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days528.00100.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.582.08
elo1465.71
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1476.11
elo momentum (last 5)0.4235.84
eye test v1-0.54-0.35
eye trend v1-0.590.16
first sub minute (last 10)58.8063.30
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.92
keeper form v1—0.83
league points22.0027.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8067.80
possession avg (last 5)52.2047.40
rest days6.997.92
scorer concentration0.260.23
season ppg1.291.59
skill v1-0.15-1.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.80
state index-0.100.33
sterile dominance v10.59-0.84
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.150.29
threat rate (last 5)0.150.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60