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Mallorca 0–3 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win43%2.29
Draw33%3.00
Valladolid win25%3.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Damia Sabater · Mallorca
47'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Valladolid
67'🟨Alex López · Valladolid
76'⚽Alex López · Valladolid
90'⚽Míchel Herrero · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.34
box share (last 5)0.570.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days338.00156.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.59
elo1460.92
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
1429.80
elo momentum (last 5)1.77-6.66
eye test v1-0.020.03
eye trend v1-0.03-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)48.9054.60
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.760.63
league points19.0019.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0052.00
rest days7.258.00
scorer concentration0.570.33
season ppg1.191.19
skill v1-0.480.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
state index-0.12-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.820.07
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.23
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80