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Huesca 1–2 Girona

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win36%2.73
Draw33%3.00
Girona win32%3.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Nagore · Huesca
13'⚽Portu · Girona
30'⚽Borja García · Girona
33'🟨Cesar Soriano · Huesca
51'🟨Nagore · Huesca
56'🟨Íñigo López · Huesca
56'🟨Aday Benítez · Girona
67'🟨Miguel Cifuentes · Girona
79'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
88'🟨Alexander González · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
box share (last 5)0.640.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days362.001075.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.111.87
elo1501.08
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
1528.69
elo momentum (last 5)17.5920.30
eye test v1-0.17-0.18
eye trend v10.190.14
first sub minute (last 10)48.5063.20
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.14
keeper form v10.640.82
league points22.0024.00
league rank6.004.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6069.20
possession avg (last 5)48.4048.60
rest days6.927.83
scorer concentration0.220.23
season ppg1.471.60
skill v1-0.46-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
state index0.370.39
sterile dominance v1-0.18-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40