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Zaragoza 2–2 Reus

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win44%2.22
Draw32%3.06
Reus win24%4.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Angel Martinez · Reus
35'⚽Ángel Rodríguez · Zaragoza
58'🟨Javi Ros · Zaragoza
59'⚽Ramon Folch · Reus
78'🟨Cani · Zaragoza
78'🟨Manuel Lanzarote · Zaragoza
80'🟨Macauley Chrisantus · Reus
82'⚽Ramon Folch · Reus
85'🟨Ramon Folch · Reus
88'⚽Jean Marie Dongou · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.32
box share (last 5)0.540.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days56.00909.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.151.60
elo1438.29
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1503.71
elo momentum (last 5)17.42-18.59
eye test v1-0.72-0.50
eye trend v1-0.230.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.9063.10
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
keeper form v10.790.79
league points20.0023.00
league rank11.004.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4075.00
possession avg (last 5)46.4050.80
rest days6.176.33
scorer concentration0.300.50
season ppg1.331.53
skill v1-0.85-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
state index-0.01-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.020.15
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.160.19
threat rate (last 5)0.170.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20