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Lugo 1–3 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win42%2.34
Draw30%3.21
Tenerife win28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Joselu · Lugo
7'🟨Manu · Lugo
8'⚽ (pen)Suso · Tenerife
12'🟨Alfonso Pedraza · Lugo
29'🟨Jordi Calavera · Lugo
30'🟨Vitolo · Tenerife
50'🟨Ignasi Miquel · Lugo
67'⚽Suso · Tenerife
71'🟨Iñaki Sáenz · Tenerife
78'⚽Aaron Ñiguez · Tenerife
90'🟨Pablo Caballero · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.630.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days148.00391.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.46
elo1467.461461.17
elo momentum (last 5)-15.6611.86
eye test v10.11-0.37
eye trend v1-0.20-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)68.4058.70
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.690.75
league points24.0020.00
league rank4.0013.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0065.40
possession avg (last 5)57.2045.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.501.25
skill v10.33-1.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
state index-0.35-0.14
sterile dominance v10.59-0.85
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.16
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00