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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–2 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win53%1.83
Draw26%3.75
Huesca win21%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Borja Lázaro · Huesca
31'🟨Rajko Brežančić · Huesca
34'🟨Rajko Brežančić · Huesca
34'🟥Rajko Brežančić · Huesca
36'⚽ (pen)Patrick Ebert · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
57'🟨Fran Beltrán · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
59'⚽Patrick Ebert · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
64'⚽Borja Lázaro · Huesca
80'🟨Quini · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
85'🟨Nagore · Huesca
87'🟨Sergio Herrera · Huesca
88'🟨Álex Moreno · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
box share (last 5)0.610.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days19.00355.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.42
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
1450.68
1500.79
elo momentum (last 5)-22.7634.54
eye test v1-0.060.13
eye trend v1-0.150.32
first sub minute (last 10)54.7052.00
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.43
keeper form v10.580.61
league points15.0021.00
league rank20.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8070.40
possession avg (last 5)56.4049.80
rest days7.258.08
scorer concentration0.200.19
season ppg1.071.50
skill v10.12-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.20
state index-0.450.37
sterile dominance v10.11-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80