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Getafe CF 1–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win49%2.00
Draw30%3.25
Zaragoza win21%4.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Juan Cala · Getafe CF
24'🟨Edu Garcia · Zaragoza
33'🟨Jose Enrique · Zaragoza
59'🟨Álvaro Jiménez · Getafe CF
61'🟨Manuel Lanzarote · Zaragoza
64'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Getafe CF
64'🟨Leandro Cabrera · Zaragoza
86'🟨Javi Ros · Zaragoza
87'⚽ (pen)Jorge Molina · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.570.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days80.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
3.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.961.84
elo1515.511493.71
elo momentum (last 5)8.881.74
eye test v1-0.45-0.45
eye trend v1-0.05-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)53.2059.50
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.45
keeper form v10.700.82
league points18.0020.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0071.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2046.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.30
season ppg1.291.33
skill v1-0.93-0.91
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age28.2627.36
state index0.16-0.14
sterile dominance v1-0.82-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40