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Girona 3–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win54%1.79
Draw27%3.67
Lugo win19%5.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Borja García · Girona
7'⚽Carlos Hernández · Lugo
35'⚽Borja García · Girona
42'🟨Samuele Longo · Girona
49'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Lugo
51'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
77'🟨Sergio Gil · Lugo
77'🟨Joselu · Lugo
78'🟨Yelko Pino · Lugo
81'🟨Borja García · Girona
81'🟨— · Lugo
90'⚽Rubén Alcaraz · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.540.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1067.00141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.781.70
elo1579.321475.88
elo momentum (last 5)0.66-18.61
eye test v1-0.730.09
eye trend v10.10-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)57.1068.50
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.850.74
league points22.0024.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2076.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0058.80
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.260.35
season ppg1.471.60
skill v1-0.850.63
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
state index0.37-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.380.73
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20