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Lugo 1–0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Nov 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win36%2.73
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win34%2.86
Draw30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Fernando Seoane · Lugo
32'🟨Zé Castro · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
67'🟨Quini · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
69'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
85'🟨Bruno Zuculini · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
87'🟥Ignasi Miquel · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.30
box share (last 5)0.680.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days135.0012.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.692.72
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
1501.46
1457.78
elo momentum (last 5)-33.54-27.99
eye test v10.23-0.19
eye trend v10.01-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)67.0057.20
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.07
keeper form v10.720.55
league points18.0015.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2073.00
possession avg (last 5)60.2057.60
rest days6.757.75
scorer concentration0.380.20
season ppg1.381.15
skill v10.560.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index-0.52-0.75
sterile dominance v10.690.26
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.170.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20