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Levante UD 0–0 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win56%1.74
Draw27%3.64
Cadiz win17%5.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
51'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
83'🟨Aitor García · Cadiz
90'🟨Toño · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.490.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days134.00225.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
corners against avg (last 5)3.807.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.22
elo1598.731462.02
elo momentum (last 5)23.3025.17
eye test v1-0.07-0.61
eye trend v1-0.180.17
first sub minute (last 10)50.6053.80
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.710.80
league points33.0017.00
league rank1.0013.00
matches since blank9.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0064.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8040.80
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.400.42
season ppg2.361.31
skill v1-0.38-2.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
squad age26.9227.63
state index0.810.00
sterile dominance v1-0.38-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80