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Tenerife 1–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win46%2.12
Draw30%3.29
Numancia win24%4.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia
35'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia
35'⚽ (pen)Suso · Tenerife
49'🟨Suso · Tenerife
52'🟨Luis Valcarce · Numancia
63'⚽Manu Del Moral · Numancia
78'🟨Aaron Ñiguez · Tenerife
81'🟨Haythem Jouini · Tenerife
83'🟨Haythem Jouini · Tenerife
83'🟥Haythem Jouini · Tenerife
86'🟨Marc Mateu · Numancia
90'🟨Raul Camara · Tenerife
90'🟨Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia
90'🟥Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.27
box share (last 5)0.640.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days377.00530.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.88
elo1439.27
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
1402.58
elo momentum (last 5)4.94-18.99
eye test v1-0.06-0.45
eye trend v10.200.08
first sub minute (last 10)60.2059.10
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.95
keeper form v10.740.70
league points15.0013.00
league rank18.0022.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.008.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2066.60
possession avg (last 5)46.4048.40
rest days7.006.08
scorer concentration0.300.36
season ppg1.151.00
skill v1-1.23-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index-0.23-0.99
sterile dominance v1-1.16-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.33
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60