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Huesca 4–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win39%2.52
Draw33%2.99
Oviedo win29%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Óscar Gil · Oviedo
32'⚽David Ferreiro · Huesca
35'🟨Álvaro Vadillo · Huesca
39'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
45'⚽Borja Lázaro · Huesca
47'🟨Óscar Gil · Oviedo
47'🟥Óscar Gil · Oviedo
69'🟨David Rocha · Oviedo
84'⚽David Ferreiro · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.33—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.30—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.34—
box share (last 5)0.57—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days347.00164.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.63
elo1483.28
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
1520.40
elo momentum (last 5)0.4932.17
eye test v1-0.20-0.96
eye trend v1-0.270.21
first sub minute (last 10)52.9064.10
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.88
keeper form v10.640.77
league points18.0020.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8068.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8048.20
rest days7.005.92
scorer concentration0.170.36
season ppg1.381.54
skill v1-0.74-1.13
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
state index0.010.39
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.260.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60