⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Elche CF 2–0 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win40%2.47
Draw31%3.17
Valladolid win30%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Álex Fernández · Elche CF
29'🟨Álex Fernández · Elche CF
33'🟨Míchel Herrero · Valladolid
66'🟨Pedro · Elche CF
70'🟨Raúl de Tomás · Valladolid
71'🟨Juan Carlos · Elche CF
79'⚽Álex Fernández · Elche CF
89'🟨Javier Matilla · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.35
box share (last 5)0.570.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days500.00134.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.721.89
elo1465.21
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1453.21
elo momentum (last 5)-2.9639.43
eye test v10.390.60
eye trend v10.300.31
first sub minute (last 10)62.8055.10
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.94
keeper form v10.700.63
league points16.0018.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4054.40
rest days5.886.79
scorer concentration0.310.36
season ppg1.231.38
skill v1-0.080.43
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
state index-0.390.15
sterile dominance v1-0.14-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80