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Cordoba 0–2 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win39%2.48
Mallorca win30%3.21
Draw30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Guillermo Donoso · Cordoba
52'🟨Antoñito · Cordoba
63'⚽Thierry Moutinho · Mallorca
72'🟨Joan Oriol · Mallorca
78'⚽Brandon · Mallorca
88'🟨Borja Dominguez · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.32
box share (last 5)0.660.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days10.00315.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.623.08
elo1385.61
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
1455.18
elo momentum (last 5)-15.9913.08
eye test v1-0.76-0.07
eye trend v1-0.290.28
first sub minute (last 10)58.3050.00
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.99
keeper form v10.700.72
league points18.0015.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet6.002.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6075.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8052.00
rest days5.086.00
scorer concentration0.300.60
season ppg1.381.15
skill v1-0.72-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
state index-0.87-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.25-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40