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Mallorca 2–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win50%1.95
Draw29%3.34
Zaragoza win21%4.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Marcelo Silva · Zaragoza
39'⚽Juan Muñoz · Zaragoza
62'⚽Emmanuel Culio · Mallorca
70'⚽Jose Enrique · Zaragoza
72'🟨Joan Oriol · Mallorca
75'🟨Fran Rodríguez · Zaragoza
76'⚽Dejan Lekic · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.48
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days309.0035.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.101.87
elo1457.63
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
1430.90
elo momentum (last 5)6.03-16.61
eye test v1-0.17-0.03
eye trend v1-0.060.14
first sub minute (last 10)51.5056.40
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.74
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.77—
league points14.0016.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0070.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6046.80
rest days6.087.13
scorer concentration0.750.38
season ppg1.171.33
skill v1-0.10-0.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
state index0.01-0.64
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40