⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Girona 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win53%1.83
Draw28%3.43
Tenerife win18%5.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Amath Ndiaye · Tenerife
11'⚽Jonas Ramalho · Girona
24'🟨Vitolo · Tenerife
33'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
48'🟨Alex Granell · Girona
90'🟨Omar Perdomo · Tenerife
90'🟨Germán Sánchez · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.26
box share (last 5)0.550.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1053.00370.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.35
elo1509.57
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1435.59
elo momentum (last 5)6.66-1.36
eye test v1-0.88-0.23
eye trend v1-0.120.37
first sub minute (last 10)56.2057.40
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.99
keeper form v10.580.73
league points17.0014.00
league rank9.0017.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2048.80
rest days6.257.04
scorer concentration0.240.22
season ppg1.421.17
skill v1-1.15-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
state index0.22-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.75-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.34
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80