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Levante UD 1–1 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win50%1.96
Draw29%3.38
Getafe CF win21%4.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Mehdi Lacen · Getafe CF
15'🟨Roger Martí · Levante UD
22'⚽Natxo Insa · Levante UD
24'🟨Alejandro Faurlin · Getafe CF
42'🟨Cata Díaz · Getafe CF
78'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.42
box share (last 5)0.510.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days121.0059.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.961.83
elo1504.65
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
1436.74
elo momentum (last 5)48.1318.85
eye test v10.28-0.42
eye trend v10.090.19
first sub minute (last 10)54.1052.50
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.82
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.640.67
league points26.0014.00
league rank1.0014.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)49.6046.80
rest days7.138.13
scorer concentration0.390.33
season ppg2.361.27
skill v1-0.10-1.18
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
state index0.82-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00