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Zaragoza 2–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win45%2.16
Draw29%3.34
Almeria win26%3.79

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Javi Ros · Zaragoza
31'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
41'🟨Javi Ros · Zaragoza
45'🟨Ximo Navarro · Almeria
60'🟨Manuel Lanzarote · Zaragoza
67'🟨Fran Vélez · Almeria
68'⚽Ángel Rodríguez · Zaragoza
70'🟨Jose Enrique · Zaragoza
78'🟨Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
79'⚽ (pen)Quique · Almeria
80'🟨Marcelo Silva · Zaragoza
80'🟨Chuli · Almeria
84'🟨Iván Sánchez · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.28
box share (last 5)0.500.72
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days28.0089.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.20
elo1423.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1406.30
elo momentum (last 5)-34.119.65
eye test v1-0.24-0.87
eye trend v10.130.29
first sub minute (last 10)55.8048.00
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.45
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v1—0.71
league points13.0011.00
league rank16.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0067.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2043.40
rest days6.256.08
scorer concentration0.360.36
season ppg1.181.00
skill v1-0.92-1.54
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.00
state index-0.86-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.91
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40