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Oviedo 2–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win45%2.18
Draw30%3.21
Tenerife win25%3.91

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
41'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
41'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
42'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
87'🟨Suso · Tenerife
87'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.26
box share (last 5)0.500.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days144.00357.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.791.90
elo1502.55
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
1435.52
elo momentum (last 5)15.41-9.39
eye test v1-0.70-0.27
eye trend v10.15-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)60.3056.40
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.67
keeper form v10.790.78
league points13.0011.00
league rank14.0020.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0053.00
rest days8.087.00
scorer concentration0.430.33
season ppg1.301.10
skill v1-1.01-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index0.19-0.64
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80