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Getafe CF 1–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win52%1.86
Draw29%3.41
Huesca win19%5.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
32'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Getafe CF
41'🟨Francisco Molinero · Getafe CF
54'🟨Jair Amador · Huesca
55'🟨Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
63'🟨Cata Díaz · Getafe CF
68'⚽Alexander González · Huesca
72'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
74'⚽Alejandro Faurlin · Getafe CF
90'🟨Nagore · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
box share (last 5)0.600.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days51.00326.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.49
elo1437.14
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
1483.49
elo momentum (last 5)8.06-0.24
eye test v1-0.720.20
eye trend v10.320.40
first sub minute (last 10)51.1059.00
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.29
keeper form v10.710.68
league points13.0014.00
league rank10.008.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0072.60
possession avg (last 5)45.2048.80
rest days7.087.00
scorer concentration0.400.20
season ppg1.301.40
skill v1-1.36-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.00
state index-0.20-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.55-0.72
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.31
threat rate (last 5)0.200.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80