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Elche CF 1–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Manuel Arias Lopez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win44%2.20
Draw30%3.25
Cordoba win26%3.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Luso · Cordoba
21'🟨José Ángel · Elche CF
29'🟨Edu Albacar · Elche CF
40'⚽— · Elche CF
56'🟨Samu · Cordoba
68'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
72'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
90'🟨José Antonio Caro · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.41
box share (last 5)0.510.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days479.00479.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.242.50
elo1480.22
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1394.71
elo momentum (last 5)11.9822.42
eye test v10.070.00
eye trend v10.560.37
first sub minute (last 10)60.1058.60
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.88
keeper form v10.730.81
league points14.0016.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)56.2049.60
rest days6.176.00
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.401.60
skill v10.66-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.80
state index0.06-0.32
sterile dominance v10.67-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.170.21
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20