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Tenerife 1–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win52%1.88
Draw28%3.43
Cadiz win20%4.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
42'🟥Alfredo Ortuño · Cadiz
59'🟨Aaron Ñiguez · Tenerife
79'⚽Haythem Jouini · Tenerife
83'🟨Brian Oliván · Cadiz
84'🟨Aridane Hernández · Cadiz
90'⚽Gorka Santamaria · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.37
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days350.00198.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.77
elo1438.03
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
1408.95
elo momentum (last 5)4.43-24.98
eye test v1-0.76-0.68
eye trend v1-0.10-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)57.5657.67
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.64
keeper form v1—0.69
league points10.009.00
league rank19.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4067.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2048.20
rest days8.177.08
scorer concentration0.200.57
season ppg1.111.00
skill v1-0.21-1.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.673.11
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
state index-0.36-0.99
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20