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Zaragoza 1–3 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win47%2.09
Draw30%3.28
Elche CF win24%4.13

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Pelayo · Elche CF
34'⚽Nino · Elche CF
44'⚽Pelayo · Elche CF
64'⚽Ángel Rodríguez · Zaragoza
78'🟨Edu Albacar · Elche CF
83'🟨Leandro Cabrera · Zaragoza
87'🟨Pedro · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
box share (last 5)0.450.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days15.00473.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.733.24
elo1437.31
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1463.78
elo momentum (last 5)-6.22-24.29
eye test v1-0.54-0.04
eye trend v1-0.000.24
first sub minute (last 10)58.5659.11
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.51
keeper form v10.670.73
league points12.0011.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6078.80
possession avg (last 5)48.6057.40
rest days7.677.75
scorer concentration0.380.27
season ppg1.331.22
skill v1-1.280.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.223.22
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.00
state index-0.39-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.420.65
threat rate (last 10)0.220.17
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00