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Mallorca 3–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Manuel Arias Lopez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win50%1.96
Draw29%3.34
Huesca win21%4.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Brandon · Mallorca
6'⚽Brandon · Mallorca
10'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
41'🟨Emmanuel Culio · Mallorca
45'🟨Ion Ansotegi · Mallorca
56'🟨Oscar Diaz · Mallorca
58'🟨Joan Oriol · Mallorca
71'⚽Brandon · Mallorca
76'🟨Joan Oriol · Mallorca
76'🟥Joan Oriol · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.31
box share (last 5)0.520.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days282.00313.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.78—
elo1442.11
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
1482.79
elo momentum (last 5)-6.22-4.46
eye test v1-0.48-0.35
eye trend v10.320.11
first sub minute (last 10)57.8864.50
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.25—
keeper form v1—0.74
league points7.0011.00
league rank20.009.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0070.00
possession avg (last 5)51.0043.00
rest days8.008.08
scorer concentration—0.29
season ppg0.881.38
skill v1-0.38-1.32
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.254.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.00
state index-0.50-0.19
sterile dominance v1-0.21-1.12
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.60—