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Oviedo 2–2 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Manuel Lopez Amaya, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win41%2.36
Draw30%3.23
Numancia win28%3.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Franciso Regalón · Numancia
20'⚽Toché · Oviedo
29'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia
33'🟨Toché · Oviedo
63'⚽Manu Del Moral · Numancia
68'⚽ (og)Alexander Callens · Oviedo
71'🟨Lucas Torró · Oviedo
78'🟨Pedro Orfila · Numancia
90'🟨Nando · Oviedo
90'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days123.00489.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)—1.78
elo1434.051495.66
elo momentum (last 5)4.8410.12
eye test v1-1.07-0.43
eye trend v10.280.38
first sub minute (last 10)56.2968.43
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.820.85
league points8.009.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6069.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4047.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.400.40
season ppg1.141.29
skill v1-0.55-1.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.29
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.60
state index-0.36-0.12
sterile dominance v10.22-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.170.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.30
threat rate (last 5)0.160.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40