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Zaragoza 1–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win45%2.19
Draw30%3.25
Cordoba win25%3.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-3'🟨Manuel Lanzarote · Zaragoza
23'⚽ (pen)Rodri · Cordoba
27'⚽Leandro Cabrera · Zaragoza
31'🟨Fran Rodríguez · Zaragoza
51'🟨Carlos Caballero · Cordoba
61'🟨Marcelo Silva · Zaragoza
83'🟨Domingo Cisma · Cordoba
90'🟨Leandro Cabrera · Zaragoza
90'🟨Rodri · Cordoba
90'🟨Luso · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
box share (last 5)0.440.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days0.00458.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.692.28
elo1447.50
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1398.57
elo momentum (last 5)0.7629.92
eye test v1-0.65-0.31
eye trend v1-0.220.50
first sub minute (last 10)59.5759.14
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.94
keeper form v10.630.67
league points11.0014.00
league rank7.003.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8073.60
possession avg (last 5)49.8052.00
rest days6.067.06
scorer concentration0.450.43
season ppg1.572.00
skill v1-0.94-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.863.14
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.80
state index-0.29-0.27
sterile dominance v1-0.190.09
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.170.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80