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Numancia 2–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win41%2.37
Draw31%3.12
Zaragoza win28%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'⚽Juan Muñoz · Zaragoza
45'⚽Manu Del Moral · Numancia
54'⚽Nacho Sánchez · Numancia
70'🟨Erik Morán · Zaragoza
77'🟨Marcelo Silva · Zaragoza
79'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia
90'🟨Manuel Lanzarote · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.37
box share (last 5)0.550.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days482.00299.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.852.22
elo1408.21
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
1457.19
elo momentum (last 5)7.1813.63
eye test v1-0.95-0.38
eye trend v10.37-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)67.1759.33
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.16
keeper form v10.880.62
league points6.0011.00
league rank21.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2068.00
possession avg (last 5)46.4047.00
rest days4.834.83
scorer concentration—0.50
season ppg1.001.83
skill v1-1.27-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.834.17
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.00
state index-0.34-0.29
sterile dominance v1-0.61-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60