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Girona 1–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Thu, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win61%1.50
Draw24%3.81
Mirandes win14%6.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
54'⚽Borja García · Girona
67'🟨Fran Cruz · Mirandes
84'⚽Jon Aurtenetxe · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.500.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1009.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
elo1563.231454.61
elo momentum (last 5)-20.4327.44
eye test v10.47-0.14
eye trend v1-0.610.26
first sub minute (last 10)50.4047.40
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.330.78
league points6.009.00
league rank14.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6072.20
possession avg (last 5)51.4048.80
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.300.50
season ppg1.001.80
skill v1-0.64-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.60
squad age26.0425.01
state index0.05-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.83-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.320.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.40