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Cadiz 1–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Tue, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win46%2.10
Draw31%3.16
Numancia win23%4.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Cadiz
64'🟨Luis Valcarce · Numancia
90'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
90'⚽Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days172.00477.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
corners against avg (last 5)7.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.251.85
elo1456.291495.67
elo momentum (last 5)2.712.60
eye test v1-1.31-0.88
eye trend v10.290.33
first sub minute (last 10)63.2068.40
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.30
keeper form v10.680.88
league points5.006.00
league rank17.0014.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)61.8069.20
possession avg (last 5)36.4046.60
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.67—
season ppg1.001.20
skill v1-2.83-1.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.80
squad age26.1827.41
state index-0.07-0.18
sterile dominance v1-1.60-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60