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Lugo 1–0 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2016 · Tue, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win37%2.60
Valladolid win33%2.99
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽ (pen)Joselu · Lugo
20'🟨Luciano Balbi · Valladolid
38'🟨André Leão · Valladolid
67'🟨Rafa · Valladolid
74'🟨Brayan Perea · Lugo
75'🟨Ángel García · Valladolid
90'🟨Joselu · Lugo
90'🟨Ignasi Miquel · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.560.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days81.0081.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)—1.83
elo1473.971457.23
elo momentum (last 5)41.563.40
eye test v10.36-0.70
eye trend v10.020.44
first sub minute (last 10)64.8060.60
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.560.83
league points12.007.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2073.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4046.80
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg2.001.40
skill v10.01-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
state index0.43-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.290.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40