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Reus 1–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reus win38%2.58
Draw31%3.12
Numancia win31%3.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'🟨Franciso Regalón · Numancia
49'⚽Unai Medina · Numancia
64'🟨Franciso Regalón · Numancia
64'🟥Franciso Regalón · Numancia
68'⚽Ricardo Vaz · Reus
83'🟨David Querol · Reus
84'🟨Monir El Kajoui · Numancia
85'🟨Ricardo Vaz · Reus
85'🟨Angel Martinez · Reus
88'🟨Luis Valcarce · Numancia
90'🟨Mayor · Reus
90'🟥Pablo Valcarce · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReusNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.25
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.15
box share (last 5)0.790.55
cards avg (last 5)—0.00
coach days832.00467.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Reus
—
-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)—4.80
corners for avg (last 5)—4.60
corners volatility (last 10)—2.04
elo1508.681483.93
elo momentum (last 5)—-12.77
eye test v1-0.02-1.12
first sub minute (last 10)38.6771.00
form points (last 5)—5.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)—0.80
goals for avg (last 5)—0.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.92
h2 goals (last 10)—0.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.30
keeper form v10.80—
league points5.002.00
league rank7.0022.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.3369.67
possession avg (last 5)46.0051.33
rest days7.006.00
season ppg1.670.67
skill v1-0.32-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.672.33
state index-0.22-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.46-0.10
threat rate (last 3)0.250.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.19
venue ppg (last 5)—1.00