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Mirandes 3–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Sep 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes win46%2.13
Draw31%3.15
Cadiz win23%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Alfredo Ortuño · Cadiz
30'🟨Aridane Hernández · Cadiz
33'🟨Gorka Santamaria · Cadiz
33'⚽Salvi · Cadiz
36'🟨Sergio Mantecon · Cadiz
37'🟨Gorka Santamaria · Cadiz
37'🟥Gorka Santamaria · Cadiz
40'🟨Javi Hervás · Mirandes
45'🟨Álvaro García · Cadiz
50'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
52'⚽ (pen)Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
55'⚽Maikel Mesa · Mirandes
62'🟨Daniel Güiza · Cadiz
66'⚽Iker Guarrotxena · Mirandes
68'🟨Khalifa Sankare · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
box share (last 5)0.750.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—155.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
—
0.00
corners against avg (last 5)—5.40
corners for avg (last 5)—5.40
corners volatility (last 10)—2.13
elo1432.531453.38
elo momentum (last 5)-31.22-7.03
eye test v1-0.86-1.77
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.55
keeper form v10.85—
matches since blank2.0011.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.5059.00
possession avg (last 5)48.5036.50
rest days7.006.00
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-0.74-3.66
sot against avg (last 5)6.503.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.00
squad age25.2127.97
state index-1.01-0.39
sterile dominance v10.09-1.83
threat rate (last 3)0.150.19
threat rate (last 5)0.150.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00