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Cordoba 3–3 Lugo

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win50%1.94
Draw29%3.41
Lugo win21%4.62

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Rodri · Cordoba
42'⚽Antonio Campillo · Lugo
49'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Lugo
51'⚽ (pen)Rodri · Cordoba
55'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
61'⚽Joselu · Lugo
77'🟨Manu · Lugo
77'⚽Ignasi Miquel · Lugo
89'🟨Serge Leuko · Lugo
90'🟨Serge Leuko · Lugo
90'🟥Serge Leuko · Lugo
90'⚽ (pen)Juli Cerda · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.190.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.720.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days429.0063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
-2.40
—
corners against avg (last 5)6.00—
corners for avg (last 5)3.60—
corners volatility (last 10)2.35—
elo1501.151433.11
elo momentum (last 5)37.05-26.61
eye test v1-1.460.31
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v1—0.55
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.5078.00
possession avg (last 5)53.0055.50
rest days5.006.00
season ppg2.001.00
skill v1-0.080.62
sot against avg (last 5)2.005.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.505.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.505.00
state index0.56-0.98
sterile dominance v10.580.42
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.150.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40