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Fenerbahce 3–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win82%1.18
Draw12%8.25
Konyaspor win6%15.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Fernandão · Fenerbahce
34'⚽ (og)Selim Ay · Fenerbahce
61'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
64'🟨Selim Ay · Konyaspor
65'⚽ (pen)Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
70'⚽Moryke Fofana · Konyaspor
73'⚽Adis Jahović · Konyaspor
82'🟨Moryke Fofana · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots12
7On target9
7Corners4
7Fouls8
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
coach days352.0079.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.250.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.607.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.602.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.07
dominance (last 5)0.670.56
elo1794.661530.24
elo momentum (last 5)30.3619.75
eye test v11.49-0.70
eye trend v10.320.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.8054.10
form points (last 5)15.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)3.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)4.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)2.211.43
h2 goals (last 10)1.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v10.880.80
league points80.0040.00
league rank1.0019.00
matches since blank8.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6078.80
possession avg (last 5)57.6055.60
rest days5.007.00
scorer concentration0.160.17
season ppg2.051.03
shot diff avg (last 5)7.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.208.00
skill v11.040.62
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)8.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)7.402.60
squad age29.3629.14
state index1.710.31
sterile dominance v10.020.63
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.360.21
threat rate (last 5)0.320.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00