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Besiktas 5–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win74%1.31
Draw14%6.73
Sivasspor win12%8.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
45'🟨Cyle Larin · Besiktas
48'🟨Robinho · Sivasspor
50'⚽Cyle Larin · Besiktas
54'⚽Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
55'🟨Gary Medel · Besiktas
65'🟨Delvin N'Dinga · Sivasspor
66'🟨Delvin N'Dinga · Sivasspor
66'🟥Delvin N'Dinga · Sivasspor
71'🟨Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
74'⚽Cyle Larin · Besiktas
76'⚽Cyle Larin · Besiktas
86'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
90'🟨Domagoj Vida · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots6
10On target3
7Corners4
16Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.640.52
cards avg (last 5)1.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
coach days1083.00444.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.23
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.540.43
elo1774.921580.11
elo momentum (last 5)-18.7436.12
eye test v10.540.04
eye trend v10.05-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)59.0051.90
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.770.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.790.83
league points76.0060.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)60.8051.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.210.22
season ppg1.951.54
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.606.80
skill v11.530.31
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age28.8428.33
state index0.810.20
sterile dominance v10.880.53
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.19
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00