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Akhisarspor 2–1 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bahattin Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win44%2.19
Osmanlispor win32%2.99
Draw24%4.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Hasan Ali Adıgüzel · Akhisarspor
45'⚽Furkan Özçal · Osmanlispor
90'⚽Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots14
10On target4
3Corners3
7Fouls8
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
coach days443.00351.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.701.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.23
dominance (last 5)0.420.56
elo1509.341494.05
elo momentum (last 5)-0.31-0.26
eye test v1-0.600.51
eye trend v1-0.24-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)55.1062.10
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.640.59
league points42.0037.00
league rank15.0020.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4070.40
possession avg (last 5)46.4039.40
rest days4.005.00
scorer concentration0.180.28
season ppg1.080.95
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.802.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.2011.60
skill v1-0.46-1.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.00
squad age29.7129.69
state index-0.38-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.07-2.14
threat rate (last 10)0.220.35
threat rate (last 3)0.200.38
threat rate (last 5)0.210.41
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.60